Braun hits game-winner as Brewers edge Nationals

Baseball Betting Lines

07/24/2010 - Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Braun drove in Rickie Weeks with the game-winning run in the ninth inning, as the Milwaukee Brewers edged the Washington Nationals, 4-3, in the middle test of a three-game series.

Braun and Jim Edmonds each recorded a solo home run in Milwaukee's third straight win, which was credited to John Axford (6-1) despite his suffering his first blown save of the season.

After Adam Dunn's sacrifice fly tied it in the top of the ninth, Weeks reached on a one-out single off Drew Storen (2-2) in the bottom half. Joe Inglett took a payoff pitch off the plate to draw a walk, then Braun roped a line drive off the base of the left-field wall to bring in Weeks without a play at the plate.

Axford was perfect in 14 save chances coming in, but quickly loaded the bases on back-to-back singles and a perfectly-placed bunt down the third base line by pinch-hitter Nyjer Morgan.

Dunn came in to hit for Ivan Rodriguez and lofted a fly to short right-center that was caught by Carlos Gomez, whose throw home was not in time to nab Ryan Zimmerman.

Axford, appearing in his third game in as many nights, got out of the inning with the score tied by inducing a short flyout to right by pinch-hitter Wil Nieves and a harmless groundout by Alberto Gonzalez.

Manny Parra allowed two runs on four hits and three walks over a six-inning start for Milwaukee, while J.D. Martin lasted just 2 1/3 innings and gave up a run on three hits and three walks for Washington, which dropped the opener of this set, 7-5.

Braun's blast to right-center gave the Brewers a 1-0 lead in the first.

Despite failing to score with the bases loaded in the second and squandering a leadoff triple in the third, the hosts went up 2-0 in the fourth when Collin Balester served up a homer to Edmonds, who made a nice grab in the away half.

Parra faced the minimum through four frames, but walked Josh Willingham to open the fifth and yielded a single to Mike Morse. A flyout moved the lead runner up, and Ian Desmond hit a line drive that appeared to find the gap in right.

Edmonds, whose last of his eight Gold Gloves came in 2005, ranged over from center and made a diving catch. Morse was nearly at third when the catch was made, but Willingham scored before Morse was doubled off first.

Weeks was hit on the left ear flap of his helmet with a Balester pitch in the bottom half, but stayed in the game and was stranded on third.

Gonzalez singled leading off the sixth, and Roger Bernadina later brought him in with a sacrifice fly to left to tie the game. Parra left the bases full by striking out Morse.

Edmonds led off the bottom half with a single, moved to third on an Alcides Escobar base hit and scored when Jonathan Lucroy doubled off the center field wall. Edmonds then left the game with a tight right hamstring.

Game Notes

Balester had made 22 starts with Washington during the 2008-09 seasons but had spent the entire 2010 campaign in Triple-A Syracuse. The right-hander was recalled Saturday but is expected to be sent right back down, as Ross Detwiler is scheduled to be brought up from the minors to make Sunday's start opposite Dave Bush...Brewers outfielder Corey Hart sat out due to a right wrist injury he sustained during Friday's game...The Brewers have homered in 13 straight games...The Nationals have lost 12 straight one-run contests on the road and 11 of their last 13 overall at Miller Park.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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