Alpha looms large in Withers

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/03/2012 - Ozone Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Local stakes winner Alpha has been made the even-money favorite in a field of seven for Saturday's $200,000 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. After a year's absence the Withers returns as a prep event for three-year-olds on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for Godolphin Racing, Alpha will start from the outside post with regular rider Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. The colt was the 4-5 favorite when winning last month's Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct.

"We're excited to be running him, to be in this position," said McLaughlin. . "Our stomachs were upset last weekend when Consortium didn't run well in the slop at Gulfstream (sixth in the Holy Bull), so we're thankful for Alpha. But we have to do it day by day, race by race."

Alpha, whose sire Bernardini won this race in 2006, has two wins in four career starts with $180,000 in his bankroll. He was second to Union Rags in the Champagne Stakes last October, but only 11th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

"The Withers is an important race because it's graded and you don't get to run in the Derby unless you have those graded stakes earnings," said McLaughlin. . "When you look at the schedule, you start with the first Saturday in May, and work back from there. We are taking the Withers as an important step, and maybe, maybe, afterward we'll talk about what we're going to do."

The 1 1/16-mile Withers is a preliminary race for Aqueduct's $1 million Wood Memorial on April 7.

The 4-1 second selection is King Kid trained by Dale Romans. The colt has drawn post four with Mike Luzzi getting the mount.

"He's a horse we've always thought a lot of, and we'd like him to run big Saturday and see if he belongs," said Romans who saddled 2011 Preakness champ Shackleford. "It would be nice to get $120,000 of graded stakes earnings and then be selective about where he'd go next."

Owned by McKee Stables, King Kid won in his first start in November and was third in last month's Gulfstream Park Derby behind Reveron. Reveron has drawn into Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

Here is the full Withers' field from the rail out: Hakama, Julian Pimentel, 5-1; Speightscity, David Cohen, 20-1; Swag Daddy, Junior Alvarado, 10-1; King Kid, Mike Luzzi, 4-1; How Do I Win, Cornelio Velasquez, 10-1; Tiger Walk, Horacio Karamanos, 6-1 and Alpha, Ramon Dominguez, 1-1.

Post-time for the Withers is slated at 4:05 p.m. (et).

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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