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06/01/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not since 2006 have the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners both failed to show up for the Belmont Stakes. That year the race was won by Jazil, a horse with just one win in seven career starts. This year, 12 colts and geldings are expected to enter the third leg of the Triple Crown and four of them have only recorded a single triumph.
Without Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky in the starting gate, Kentucky Derby runnerup Ice Box is expected to be the morning line favorite. The Nick Zito- trained colt exploded onto the scene with a nose victory over Pleasant Prince in the Florida Derby on March 20, and then might have been best in the Run for the Roses despite the second-place finish.
Two other three-year-olds that will take money at the betting windows are Fly Down, winner of the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park, and Preakness runnerup First Dude. The other nine horses will look to spring the upset the way Summer Bird (11-1) and Da' Tara (38-1) did the last two years.
In the first of two articles featuring the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes, I'll take a look at six expected longshots and try to make a case for each one, beginning with Spangled Star.
Trained by Richard Dutrow, who lost the Belmont (and the Triple Crown) with Big Brown in 2008, Spangled Star needed six races just to break his maiden. That win came on January 2 at Laurel by 4 1/4-lengths. His next start, and first for Dutrow, was in an entry level allowance/optional claimer on February 24. Spangled Star ran third at 7-2.
Dutrow then sent the chestnut colt into the Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct against stablemate, D' Funnybone. Neither horse won the race as Afleet Again came from off the pace to reel in Ibboyee. Spangled Star got up for third at 28-1
Back in 2002, Sarava won the Belmont at odds of 70-1. Spangled Star won't be that high this Saturday but a victory will be considered even more of an upset since Sarava at least was a stakes winner heading into the race.
Dave in Dixie is another outsider that shouldn't even be entered. He hasn't won a race since last August and his last two attempts were a sixth-place finish in the San Felipe and a fifth-place effort, beaten 16 lengths, in the Illinois Derby. The race at Hawthorne was also his lone trek on traditional dirt so there is a good chance he prefers synthetics.
On the other hand, he did have viable excuses in both races as the two winners, Sidney's Candy and American Lion, won on the lead through slow internal fractions. Dave in Dixie is a horse that needs a very fast pace in front of him since he comes from way back.
The John Sadler trainee is also a horse that runs much better when fresh. That's important since this will be his first start since April 3 - the longest layoff of any of the 12 three-year-olds. If the Belmont pace is very fast, there's a small chance he could fill out the trifecta.
Uptowncharlybrown has not been able to put it all together after back-to-back wins in his first two starts. He ran a lackluster third to Rule and Schoolyard Dreams in the Sam F. Davis, and then finished fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby.
After the unfortunate death of trainer Alan Seewald prior to the Lexington Stakes, longtime assistant Linda White took over bringing in Garrett Gomez to ride. The son of Limehouse failed to grip the Polytrack surface early on, dropping back to next-to-last in the 1 1/16-mile event. However, the colt persevered and closed stoutly to finish third, beaten less than two lengths.
Kiaran McLaughlin is now in charge and he's been working his new three-year- old at Belmont Park in tandem with Trappe Shot.
Uptowncharlybrown should take to the Belmont surface and the distance should also suit. Nevertheless his ability to get the job done against top-flight three-year-olds is a major question mark.
Drosselmeyer is another colt that has had plenty of opportunities to shine. Unfortunately, something has always gone wrong in the end. His connections have now sought a change in jockeys as Mike Smith takes over for Kent Desormeaux, who rode the horse his last five starts.
Purchased for $600,000 as a yearling, the son of Distorted Humor won his first ever start on true dirt, breaking his maiden by six lengths as the 4-5 favorite. He won his next outing at nine furlongs and was then made the 2-1 favorite in the Risen Star Stakes.
Jumping up and winning a graded stakes race was not to be as Drosselmeyer hung like a chandelier in the fourth spot, losing by 1 3/4-lengths to Discreetly Mine. The Bill Mott-trainee was then let go at 9-2 in the Louisiana Derby and once again failed to fire late, finishing third to Mission Impazible by a full length.
Drosselmeyer sat out of the first two legs of the Triple Crown and prepped for the Belmont Stakes by running in the Dwyer on May 8. Sent off as the 7-10 favorite in the seven-horse race, the underachieving colt broke a couple of steps slow and trailed by four lengths right off the bat. He then switched from the rail to the four-path into the stretch and had zero answers for Fly Down, who cruised to a six-length win. One of these days Drosselmeyer will put it all together, but not this Saturday.
Stay Put is one of four horses in the race with three lifetime victories. (Ice Box, Fly Down and Interactif are the others.) He's also the only one of the four without a stakes victory. The son of Broken Vow is coming off a win on Derby Day in an allowance/optional claimer over the slop at Churchill Downs, but like Drosselmeyer, he couldn't get the job done in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, finishing fifth in the two Grade II events.
Stay Put needs a very fast pace in front of him and it's doubtful he'll get it on Saturday. He's also one of only two horses in the race that has failed to earn a Beyer figure over 90. The other is the longshot, Spangled Star.
Stately Victor caught lightning in a bottle at 40-1 in the Blue Grass Stakes and followed that effort up with a decent eighth-place finish in the Derby. Still, based on his running line in the Run for the Roses, he should have finished even higher.
Of the four horses that were in the back-of-the-pack early on, he ended up six lengths behind Ice Box, four in back of Make Music for Me and 1 3/4-lengths behind Lookin At Lucky.
It's true he made a much earlier move than that troika, but tiring at 1 1/4- miles will not help his chances at 1 1/2-miles. Remember, he's yet to win a race on conventional dirt as his two lifetime victories came on grass and over Polytrack.
Of these six longshots, only Drosselmeyer should be in the single-digit range. The betting public might also side with Uptowncharlybrown since he's never been higher than 4-1. Still, it's hard to back any one of these half-dozen colts as they seem up against it in the final leg of the Triple Crown.
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“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
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Super Bowl XLIII isn't even a week old yet and oddsmakers have already released Super Bowl XLIV odds.
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers winning Super Bowl 43, the New England Patriots are 8/1 favorites to win Super Bowl 44.
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
With their 27-23 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, the Steelers became the latest NFL champion. But believe it or not, oddsmakers from online sports book MySportsbook.com don't have the Steelers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV next season.
That honor belongs to the New England Patriots, who are 8/1 favorites to win despite not even qualify for the postseason in 2008. The Pats also have a major decision to make regarding what to do with Matt Cassel, who played well in Tom Brady's (knee surgery) absence last year but is also a free agent this offseason.
Ironically, the Steelers aren't even oddsmakers second choice to win Super Bowl 44, as the Dallas Cowboys are listed right behind the Patriots at 9/1 despite not making the playoffs themselves. Clearly oddsmakers think the public will hop back on the Cowboys' bandwagon considering the immense talent they have and the opening of a brand new stadium.
After Dallas, then comes Pittsburgh at 10/1, but they share those odds with the New York Giants, who won Super Bowl XLII. The Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers round out the top six teams at 12/1, while the Baltimore Ravens (14/1), Tennessee Titans (16/1), Carolina Panthers (18/1) and Philadelphia Eagles (18/1) complete the top 10.
The NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals got no love from oddsmakers as they were established as a 30/1 long shot to win next year's Super Bowl. They share those same odds with the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – two teams that didn't even qualify for the postseason. Other long shots are the Kansas City Chiefs (100/1), Detroit Lions (100/1), St. Louis Rams (75/1) and Oakland Raiders (75/1).
To see a complete list of all the team's odds to win Super Bowl XLIV, check below.
NFL TEAM FUTURE ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV
New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago BearS 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston TexaNS 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle SeahawkS 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
Odds as of: 2/2/09
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
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